It is A Nash Equilibrium for Russia, Ukraine and NATO

 [1] The life of John Nash the celebrated Princeton academic and Nobel winner for mathematics did not only give us the Hollywood masterpiece A Beautiful Mind he also bequeathed posterity with a framework for analyzing competitive human interaction such as war and politics: The Nash Equilibrium, a sub paradigm in game theory just like the prisoner’s dilemma was adopted by the military and strategic fields.

[2-1] Nash equilibrium occurs when actors in a conflict choose what they consider as their best possible strategy and stick to it even when they are aware of the opponent’s strategy. This is the situation in Ukraine where all parties have war has their best strategy for the political disagreement.

[2-2] Russia knows that the number one rule of military science is “Never March On Moscow”, and that whoever has marched on Moscow has seen the end of their career: Napoleon and Hitler are outstanding examples. They know the West will leverage on technology against their natural defense system. They are also aware the situation may escalate into a full-blown war with Ukraine’s NATO pact allies. Russia also anticipated western propaganda and a host of other strategies with negative economic consequences.

[3-1] NATO on the other hand is aware of Russian weather, but also knows they have leverage in their advanced military technology, an edge in the fourth industrial revolution. They are familiar with Russian munitions and aerial power having been on different sides in Syria recently.

[3-2] They also know the psychodynamics of Putin who means business with war, not so long ago he was in Georgia, Crimea, etc. ‘disciplining’ them. Ukraine, on the other hand, knows her ‘flirting’ with NATO annoys Russia but continues to ‘flirt’, well aware it can potentially result in a war based on the antecedents of Russia in the Balkans but maybe it’s also Ukraine’s opportunity to stamp her sovereignty.

[4-1] Understanding what motivates these actors to stick to war as a solution to their political disagreement takes us straight to the texture of the conflict. The reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still similar to that of Moldovia and Wallachia on the bank of the Danube in 1828: fear of using any Balkan/Eastern state as a conduit for western liberalism to infiltrate Russia.

[4-2] Also state formation in the East/Balkans. You will find ethnic Slavs all over eastern Europe including Ukraine and Russia. This ethnic similarity was an entry point for the creation of the USSR empire until it disintegrated under Gorbachev.

[4-3] Russia also believes having vanquished the Ottoman hegemony and being the only known assignee of the Byzantine/Roman Empire, they are bonafide trustees of the Balkans and Eastern Europe in terms of vision and security under the Warsaw Pact, but feel invaded by many NATO/US military bases near it including one in Germany and now Ukraine and think this contradiction should be sorted out once and for all.

[5-1] Part of the problem was caused by US/NATO’s failure to design a post-British Balkan/Eastern European policy that reflects the post-war bipolar nature of the international system, assigning power based on the old power game of spheres of influence which is never admitted but is part of the psychic of global powers.

[5-2] The old Palmerstone script of relying on the strength of the Hapsburg Monarchy, Austria, playing Poland against Russia and in modern times Ukraine as buffer states is still the framework of US/NATO. Russia’s Asian ally China is dealing with the same problem using Xi Jinping’s One China Policy for Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

[6-1] There are certainly multiple angles to view the situation but most people are focusing on the psycho-biography of Putin which has led them to wrong conclusions. Focus on Putin will lead you to miss the forest for the trees, it is pointless to focus on the agent but rather the structure. Russian leaders are the same anyway.

[6-2] Tzar Nicholas I (1825-1855) is not any different from Putin today, in fact, American Minister Andrew D White once described him as the most majestic being. Does this sound familiar? Anyway, all parties have tasted each other’s resolve and with mutually assured destruction in sight, they will sit and talk and save the world from World War III even when historical antecedents show that a global pandemic is usually followed by a world war.